The Lockdown Lie

New data on the “mortgage rate lockdown” theory

January 09, 2026

#120

WELCOME

Welcome to a new year and our first edition of 2026. Wherever you’re starting from, we hope it’s with a clear focus and a positive outlook for the year ahead.

SHARPEN YOUR SKILLS: Today’s Top Podcast Rec 🔊

Jason Oppenheim started out as an attorney—and now leads one of the top brokerages in LA, featured on Selling Sunset and Selling the OC. Hear why the stress and pressure of practicing law pushed him to try something new, how one ad in The Hollywood Reporter changed the future of the Oppenheim group, and Jason’s unexpected advice for making the most of every open house you host, all in the latest episode of Rise Above the Ranks with James Harris.

TRACK THE MARKET: The locks are loose

For the past few years, the theory of a “mortgage rate lockdown”, where sellers chose to stick with their low-rate mortgage instead of buying a home and taking on a higher rate, has weighed on the industry. If you ask most agents, you’ll likely find that the assumed mortgage rate lockdown has become a part of industry psychology. But new national mortgage data suggests the story isn’t as simple as it sounds and homeowners have been more willing to part with their sub-6% rate than the narrative suggests. 

As the data shared by HousingWire revealed, equity gains, income growth, property taxes, and maintenance costs all push home sellers and buyers to make trade-offs—more than the interest rate alone. 

By the numbers:

  • The share of homeowners with a mortgage rate of 6%+ more than tripled over the past few years, from 6.99% in Q1 2022 to 21.2% by Q3 of 2025.

  • Homeowners with sub-3% rates declined from 24.58% in Q1 2022 to 20% in Q3 2025.

  • The share of mortgages in the middle, with interest rates in the 3-4% range, fell from 40.48% of outstanding loans in Q1 2022 to 31.5% in Q3 2025.

Taken together, these shifting shares show the market has been more fluid and adaptable than real estate headlines suggest. While higher rates undoubtedly do have a psychological effect on buyer behavior and seller motivation, they haven’t stopped movement. In other words, the “lockdown” may have shut out some sales, but it never fully locked the door.

DIVE IN

The Friday Five

📖 Italian Modernism. The style you never knew you knew—but know you love. 

👀 Buying Bono. Would you give $7.5M for Sonny Bono’s Italian-influenced former Palm Springs home?

👀 Levine living. Adam Levine just got $60M for this Montecito mega mansion, first built for Rob Lowe.

💡Want more Glennda? Scroll through the best soundbites from Glennda’s most-replayed conversations. 

💡Small wins. Why even mini milestones are worth making the most of.

WHAT’S NEW FROM ESTATE MEDIA

My Pleasure, Portugal

The Algarve, Portugal’s southernmost, sun-drenched region, is known for its dramatic coastline, relaxed lifestyle, and Palmares—an incredible master-planned destination with a world-renowned golf course, incredible architecture, and unforgettable ocean views. 

Explore the best of the Algarve region with Josh Flagg in Part 1 of his My Pleasure, Portugal tour where he discovers what makes the Algarve coast—and Palmares’ golf course community—a can’t miss destination for buyers and travelers alike.

FEATURED LUXURY LISTING

The Jaffe House on Gardiners Bay

Set on 1.7 waterfront acres with 175 feet of Gardiners Bay frontage, this Shelter Island estate is a rare architectural work by Norman Jaffe, originally designed in 1971 and later expanded by Jaffe himself. The recently renovated 6,700+ square foot residence pairs preserved design integrity with modern comfort, offering six ensuite bedrooms, a chef’s kitchen, private gym, and movie theater. Outdoor spaces include cantilevered decks, a heated gunite pool, an entertaining pergola, and a private tennis court, all within a ferry-access-only setting that delivers exceptional privacy just beyond the Hamptons.

https://estate-elegance.beehiiv.com/p/the-jaffe-house-on-gardiners-bay

TIPS & TAKEAWAYS

“Control the controllables”

Jason Waugh explained in a recent interview on Glennda’s Guru that one of the biggest aspects that separate success from struggle is self-awareness of what you can and can’t impact or influence. When you “control your controllables”—which are most often internal, like your mindset and perspective—you move closer to success, with less struggle along the way.

HANGS & HAPPENINGS

Inman Connect | New York City, NY | February 3 - 5, 2026
The biggest names in real estate share their secrets to success with our attendees in curated sessions that will equip you with the skills to level up.

Before we go…

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