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STUNNING SHORTFALL
Why years of under-building are slowing your sales
Edition #20
WELCOME
Today, Punxsutawney Phil and his merry band of “phaitphil phollowers” (we can’t make this stuff up) declare an early spring or six more weeks of winter—a weather prediction that’s admittedly more ‘phan-fare’ than forecast. But Phil isn’t the only clairvoyant throwing his premonitions in the ring.
According to Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s senior vice president and chief economist, the market is in for warmer weather and brighter days. Fannie Mae predicts three interest rate cuts are on the horizon, potentially pushing mortgage rates below 6% by year-end, with the first rate cut coming as soon as May.
Even a celebrity groundhog couldn’t cast a shadow on real estate news this good.
🔊Today’s Top Podcast Rec:
Arvin Haddad, a Los Angeles-based ultra luxury agent and former co-star of the television series “Listing Impossible” has used social media to not just grow his personal brand, but to create a platform for his property technology startup. From building viral hooks on TikTok, to having the courage to do what other agents weren’t, today’s actionable episode of The Standouts is a conversation worth bookmarking.
TRACK THE TRENDS
MARKETS
Single-family shortage
The National Association of Realtors considers a ‘balanced’ housing market and healthy home inventory to be one with about six months of supply. In January, the market dropped to just 3.2 months of inventory—far below that balanced market metric. And according to new research from Moody’s Analytics, the shortfall we’re seeing may take years to recover from.
Key takeaways from the Moody’s report:
Since the housing crisis of 2008, the US has averaged about 765,000 new home completions every year, down from around 1.1 million completions before the recession.
Multifamily and single-family home completions increased by over 11% in 2023, but those years of under-building have created a widespread deficit.
If 2024 proves to be another strong year for new home construction, the US will still be short between 1.5 to 2 million homes nationwide, including roughly 1.2 million single-family homes.
REC ROUNDUP
The Friday Five
📖 Weird and wacky. This guitar-shaped house will have you facing the multi-family music.
👀 Multi-millions. See the 10 most expensive homes sold last week.
👀 Learn the lingo. An un-real estate vocabulary lesson from Josh Flagg and Amanda McCants.
💡Refinance resurgence. Why mortgage refinancing is rising alongside home prices.
💡From connection to contact. Ricky’s advice for turning small talk into big leads.
WHAT’S NEW FROM ESTATE MEDIA
Getting out-Glennda’d
No matter who you know, what you know, or how many houses you’ve sold, every single agent has room for improvement. As Glennda Baker shares in the Glennda Gazette, even she leaves high-value opportunities on the table now and then.
Read how a local agent leveraged Glennda’s big sale to land her own listing—plus the one question to ask every homeowner you meet—in this edition. Then get out there and make some calls!
FEATURED LUXURY LISTING
Our full lineup of real estate reads:
Estate Elegance. Your daily dive into luxury real estate. Everyday.
Homes.tastrophes. Unique, weird, and wild real estate. Every Monday
The Glennda Gazette. Real estate, real life, in real time. Every Wednesday.
WAS the Newsletter. Explore interior design advice and inspiration. Every Friday.
Before we go…
ESTATE RECOMMENDED RESOURCES
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